Research

Work in Progress

Capital Flows Papers:

"China's Bond Market and Global Financial Markets" (with Maurice Obstfeld) [IMF WP/18/253] 

"Portfolio Inflows Eclipsing Banking Inflows: Alternative Facts?" (with Gee Hee Hong) [IMF WP/18/29] [NEW JIMF SEP 2020 version]

Banking Papers:

"Banking Across Borders: Are Chinese Banks Different?" (with Catherine Koch and Swapan-Kumar Pradhan) [BIS WP 892] [IMF WP 20/249] [The Economist]

"Why Did Public Banks Lend More During the Global Financial Crisis?" (with Joshua Bosshardt) [IMF WP/20/84]

"The Growing Footprint of EME Banks in the International Banking System" (with Catherine Koch and Swapan-Kumar Pradhan) [Dec 2018 BIS Quarterly Review] [BIS webpage with interactive figure]

"Cross-border Banking and the Circumvention of Macroprudential and Capital Control Measures" (with Haonan Zhou) [IMF WP/18/217]

"The Global Banking Network: What is Behind the Increasing Regionalization Trend?" (with Haonan Zhou) [IMF WP/18/46]

"The Global Banking Network in the Aftermath of the Crisis: Is There Evidence of De-globalization?" (with Haonan Zhou) [IMF WP/17/232] 

Other Papers:

“Covered Interest Parity Deviations: Macrofinancial Determinants” (with Maurice Obstfeld and Haonan Zhou) [IMF WP/19/14] [NEW Aug 2020 version NBER WP 26129] 

“Managed Trade: What Could be Possible Spillover Effects of a Potential Trade Agreement Between the US and China” (with S. Chen, P. Deb, A. Gjonbalaj, S. Hannan, and A. Mohommad)  [IMF WP/19/251] 

“Inflation and Activity - Two Explorations and Their Monetary Policy Implications.” (with Olivier Blanchard and Lawrence Summers) [NBER WP 21726] [IMF WP/15/230] [online appendix] [Figures and Tables]

Publications (Refereed Journals)

15. “Substitution Patterns in Capital Inflows: Evidence from Disaggregated Capital Flow Data”, Journal of the International Money and Finance, forthcoming (with Gee Hee Hong) [IMF WP/18/29]

14. “US vs Euro Area: Who Drives Cross-Border Bank Lending to EMs”, Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, vol. 57, pp. 1-18, 2020 (with Carolina Osorio Buitron) [IMF WP/19/199]

13. “Push Factors and Capital Flows to Emerging Countries: Why Knowing Your Lender Matters More than Fundamentals”, Journal of International Economics, vol. 119 (4), pp. 133-149, 2019 (with Stijn Claessens and Damien Puy) [IMF WP/15/127] [Sep 2018 draft]

12. “How Important is the Global Financial Cycle?  Evidence from Capital Flows" IMF Economic Review, vol. 67(1), pp. 24-60, 2019 (with Stijn Claessens and Andrew Rose) [NBER WP 23699] [IMF WP/17/193] [BIS WP 661]  [Last draft] [Data]

11. "The Slowdown in Global Trade: A Symptom of A Weak Recovery,” IMF Economic Review, vol. 66 (3), pp. 440-479, 2018 (with Aqib Aslam, Emine Boz, Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro, and Petia Topalova) [IMF WP/17/242]

10. "Changes in Prudential Policy Instruments -- A New Cross-Country Database," International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13 (1), pp. 477-503, 2017 (with Ricardo Correa, Elisabetta Fiorentino, and Esther Segalla) [IMF WP/16/110] [IFDP 1169] [DATASET] 

9. “Housing Finance and Real Estate Booms: A Cross-Country Perspective.” Journal of Housing Economics, vol. 38, pp. 1-13, 2017 (with Giovanni Dell’Ariccia and Jihad Dagher) [DATASET] [IMF SDN/15/12]

8. “Global Liquidity and Cross-Border Banking Flows,” Economic Policy, vol.32 (89), pp. 81-125, 2017 (with S. Claessens and L. Ravnostki) [IMF WP/14/69] [Economic Policy, 63rd Panel Meeting version] 

7. “Foreign Bank Subsidiaries' Default Risk during the Global Crisis: What Factors Help Insulate Affiliates from their Parents?” Journal of Financial Intermediation, vol. 29, pp. 19-31, 2017 (with Soledad Martinez-Peria and Deniz Anginer) [World Bank WP 7053]

6. “The Great Cross-Border Bank Deleveraging: Supply Constraints and Intra-Group Frictions,” Review of Finance, vol. 21 (1), pp. 201-236, 2017 (with Stijn Claessens) [IMF WP/14/180] [October 2015 version]. 

4. “Drivers of Cross-Border Banking Exposures During The Crisis,” Journal of Banking and Finance, vol. 55, pp. 340–357, 2015.

3. “Financial Crisis and the Composition of Cross-border Lending,” Journal of International Money and Finance, vol. 52, pp. 60-81, 2015 (with C. Minoiu and G. Hale).


2. “Ring Fencing and Consolidated Banks’ Stress Tests,” Journal of Financial Stability, Vol. 11, pp. 1-12, 2014 (With. C. Schmieder). Also as chapter 5 in "Stress Testing: Principles, Concepts, and Frameworks", edited by A. Jobst and L.L. Ong, 2020, IMF.

1. “How Banks Go Abroad: Branches or Subsidiaries?,” Journal of Banking and Finance, vol. 31, pp. 1669-1692, 2007 (with G. Dell’Ariccia, and S. Martinez-Peria)

Publications (Book Chapters)

“Measuring Systemic Risks in a Global Banking Sector: What Can Available Data Tell Us and What More Data are Needed?,” in M. Brunnermeier and A. Krishnamurthy (editors) “Risk Topography: Systemic Risk and Macro Modeling,” NBER, 2014  (with S. Claessens and P. McGuire). Also in IMF WP 11/222, BIS WP 376, and NBER WP 18531

“Bankers without Borders? Implications ofRing-Fencing for European Cross-Border Banks,” in P. Backé, E. Gnan and P. Hartmann (editors): “Contagion and Spillovers: New Insights from the Crisis”, SUERF Study 2010/5. (with A. Ilyina, Y. Makarova and C. Schmieder). Also in IMF WP 247, November 2010.


“Intra-industry trade between Mercosur, the European Union (EU) and the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA),” in R. Eisen (editor): “Supranational Cooperation and Integration: Goods and Services vs. Information”, Frankfurt am Main; Peter Lang, 2002. (With Hebe de Marega)

Other Publications (IMF WP, BIS WP, IMF SDN, and Others)

“Export Performance in the Context of Global Trade Tensions,” Philippines 2019 Art IV, Selected Issues Papers, Chapter 1, February 2020 (with A. Isnawangsih) 

“Are Foreign Banks a 'Safe Haven'? Evidence from Past Banking Crises” (with Gustavo Adler)              [IMF WP/15/43]

 “Cross-Border Linkages and Spillovers,” Guatemala 2014 Art IV, Selected Issues and Analytical Notes, Chapter 2, August 2014 (with E. Gradzka, A. Ivanova, R. Mariscal, and J. Puig)

“Spillovers from a Potential Reversal of Fortune in Emerging Market Economies,” 2014 Spillover Report, Chapter 3, July 2014 (as part of a RES/MCM/SPR/APD/ WHD/AFR team)

“Colombia: Assessing Spillover Risks,” Colombia 2014 Art IV, Selected Issues, Chapter 1, June 2014. (with P. Morra, M. Ruiz, and C. Goes)

“Sweden and the Global Banking System: Links and Vulnerabilities,” Sweden 2013 Art IV, Selected Issues, Chapter 2, August 2013.

“Covered Bonds and Financial Stability,” Sweden 2013 Art IV, Selected Issues, Chapter 3, August 2013 (with R. Agarwal)

“House prices and Household Debt,” 2013 Nordic Regional Report, Selected Issues, Chapter 2, August 2013 (with R. Agarwal and K. Shirono).

“Spillovers Analysis,” Guatemala 2013 Art IV, Selected Issues and Analytical Notes, Chapter 2, July 2013 (with C. Rondon, L. Erickson, Y. Ustygova).

“A Banking Union for the Euro Area,” IMF SDN 13/1, February 2013 (as part of a EUR/LEG/MCM/RES team).

“International Spillovers:Banking and Sovereign Stress Spillovers,” Costa Rica 2013 Art IV, Selected Issues, Chapter 1.D, February 2013 (with Y. Ustygova)

“Banks’ Foreign Credit Exposures and Borrowers’ Rollover Risks: Measurement, Evolution and Determinants,” IMF WP/13/9, January 2013.

“The Need to Unconsolidated Consolidated Bank Stress Tests,” IMF WP 12/288, December 2012 (With. C. Schmieder)

“European Bank Deleveraging: An Update” Global Financial Stability Report, Chapter 2, October 2012 (with  S. Antoshin, A. Ilyina, W. Kerry, and N. Oulidi)

“Financial Spillovers from Euro Area and UK Global Systemically Important Banks 2012 Spillover Report, Background Papers, Chapter 7, July 2012 (with A. Ilyina, S. Mitra, M. Ruiz-Arranz, and T. Tressel)

“Methodology for the EU Bank Deleveraging Exercise,” Global Financial Stability Report, Chapter 2 and Annex 2.1, April 2012 (with  S. Antoshin, J. Gobat, A. Ilyina, and W. Kerry)

“TheHydrocarbons Boom and the Risk of Dutch Disease,” IMF WP 08/154, June 2008 (with M. Mansilla).

“IMF Drawing Programs: Participation Determinants and Forecasting,” IMF WP 07/152, July 2007.

“The Natural Gas Sector and Dutch Disease,” Bolivia 2007 Art IV, Selected Issues, Chapter 1, June 2007.

“¿Es factible una unión monetaria en el MERCOSUR? (Is a MERCOSUR Monetary Union possible?)”, Actualidad Económica, IX (46), 1999. (With Hebe de Marega)